Supplyframe today announced that its latest Commodity IQ insights reveal positive signs for a normalized supply-demand balance and reduced pricing and availability challenges as we advance into the new year. Excluding memory devices, 85% of semiconductor pricing dimensions will be stable and the remainder will move squarely in favor of buyers for the second half of 2023. But Supplyframe Commodity IQ indicates that extended Lieferzeiten for Halbleiter, including programmable logic devices and passive Bauelemente like automotive-specific Widerstände, will continue into the second half of the year.

“New Commodity IQ insights, the resilience of world economies to inflation and threats of recession, and China’s reopening economy in the second half suggest there is reason to be optimistic. Commodity IQ indicates that component availability has improved in large part, and prices across many commodities and sub commodities have stabilized,” said Supplyframe CEO and founder Steve Flagg. “But elektronisches Bauelement Lieferzeiten remain longer than historical norms. Component Lieferzeiten are improving faster than prices as demand in some markets deteriorates. And in this age of macroeconomic uncertainty, where it is becoming increasingly difficult to forecast demand amid mixed end-market signals, further intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war, continuing COVID-19 challenges in China or any number of other disruptions could emerge.”

Supplyframe Commodity IQ is a transformed approach to electronics Lieferkette Beschaffung and analysis that provides unique, predictive, and prescriptive intelligence for elektronische Bauelemente, systems, and associated commodities based on operational analytics. This always-on software-as-a-service solution from Supplyframe pairs expert analysis and context with global electronics design, demand, pricing, Lieferzeit, and inventory indices to help companies connect the dots.

For the first quarter of 2023, Commodity IQ forecasts indicate the market will experience an 8% decline in the number of rising Lieferzeiten and commodities with part allocations for active and passive Bauelemente. According to the Commodity IQ Price Index for Q1, the number of component pricing dimensions will decrease by 14%. And global elektronisches Bauelement demand and Beschaffung activities quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of this year are expected to be down by 2%, while Engineering design will be off by 20% – further evidence of demand erosion.

While there are bloated inventories for Bauelemente like memory and small case-size ceramic Kondensatoren, automotive-grade microcontrollers and FPGAs remain far below the Commodity IQ Inventory Index baseline. And analog integrierte Schaltkreise (ICs), microcontrollers, and discrete ICs (especially power MOSFETs) will remain constrained and costly in the first quarter and beyond.

In the third quarter of 2023, Lieferzeiten for all elektronische Bauelemente will ebb dramatically as compared to the third quarter of 2022. Commodity IQ projects that nearly 60% of Lieferzeit dimensions will decrease in the third quarter versus 1% in the third quarter of 2022, with none expected to increase in the third quarter compared to a massive 73% in the same quarter of 2022. But Commodity IQ expects extended Lieferzeiten to endure into the second half for Halbleiter, including programmable logic devices and passive Bauelemente like automotive-specific Widerstände.

Despite inventory reductions that will likely be complete by the end of the first half, IC orders, wafer starts, and capacity utilization will begin to rise and memory pricing will reach its bottom in the second half of this year. The company forecasts that DRAM prices will commence recovery in the third quarter and NAND pricing will follow in the fourth quarter or early in 2024.

“Commodity IQ data clearly indicate that certain aspects of the elektronisches Bauelement arena are headed for greater stability, but the fact remains that disruption is the new normal throughout the world,” said Flagg. “Sanctions between China and the U.S., among others, and the trends toward friendshoring, nearshoring, onshoring, and reshoring are changing the game. Shifts to more mature semiconductor process nodes could benefit Chinese players and industries that lack restrictions on the Chinese content of manufactured items. Supply chain complexity is increasing, with shorter product and demand cycles. And while some financial leaders are indicating the U.S. could avert a recession altogether, that could result in the return of elektronisches Bauelement constraints should we see, for example, a resurgence in electric vehicle demand.”

“Buy-side and sell-side organizations in the electronics component Lieferkette can use the power of intelligence to better position themselves in this complex, uncertain world,” said Richard Barnett, chief marketing officer and SaaS sales leader at Supplyframe. “They can use such intelligence to build resilience into their products and better understand and act to address current and future demand. As Commodity IQ indicates, there are many Stellenangebote an for enhanced supplier negotiations, better-timed Beschaffung events, and 360-degree Lieferkette visibility.”

Source：semiconductor digest